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Week Ending 10th December 2006
This weekend sees Cheltenham play host to another two days of superb racing a month after the popular Open meeting. The feature race is the boylesports.com Gold Cup over 2m5f with a strong supporting card comprising the Relkeel Hurdle and the boylesports.com International, formerly known as the Bula.
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The feature race is a hotly contested handicap where several of the principles get to reoppose the opposition they faced in last month’s Paddy Power Gold Cup over course and distance, with revised handicap marks. It can pay to stick to the obvious and back the short priced horses in this type of race but if you are doing so I’d recommend leaving having a bet until the day of the race as those at the head of the betting can invariably be had at slightly larger odds on the day than they are at this stage of proceedings. Personally I prefer to look for a relatively unexposed outsider for the value in a race of this type and for Saturday’s race I have backed Billyvoddan and Backbeat at odds of 28/1 and 40/1 respectively. Billyvoddan wasn’t disgraced first time out at Ascot and Henry Daly’s horses often need a run first time out – I feel that the 2m5f at Cheltenham is ideal for the horse, he is well handicapped and is talented although he does have a reputation of being a bit of a “thinker”. Backbeat again should be ideally suited by the trip and is somewhat of a dark horse being lightly raced since his novice days when he posted some very useful form. If Howard Johnson sees fit to travel him down to Cheltenham for the race on Saturday I’d advise to write him off at your peril – Johnson rarely brings them down south unless he thinks they can win.
The Relkeel Hurdle sees the eagerly awaited return of Jonjo O’Neill’s Black Jack Ketchum – or does it? The horse has had his intended seasonal debut postponed three times in a row now which his backers at incredibly skinny odds for the World Hurdle must be feeling a little uncomfortable about. Black Jack was very impressive last season in everything he did but in my eyes it remains to be seen whether he really is the (best priced) 7/4 shot for Cheltenham’s staying championship that the bookmakers have him chalked up at. One thing is for certain – if he deserves his place as the short priced favourite for the World Hurdle he will want to pick up and carry this field on Saturday as it really isn’t vintage by any means. In fact it can be argued that even if he wins well on Saturday that it may still be a long way off being a Festival winning performance, but you can bet your bottom dollar that his price will be slashed after the race in ante post books unless he gets beaten. Therefore if you are thinking of backing Black Jack for the World Hurdle I’d do it before he runs on Saturday even though personally I wouldn’t entertain the idea at such prohibitive odds.
Detroit City bids to cement his position at the head of the ante post markets for the Champion Hurdle in March in the Boylesports International (formerly the Bula) which he shouldn’t have a lot of difficulty doing, thus not making a particularly inspiring betting heat. The race I’m very interested in is the 2m5f novice chase which remains a potentially very good race despite the defection of Denman. Aztec Warrior, Senorita Rumbalita and Mr Pointment have already won well over fences whilst promising more to come – I particularly like the last named and have backed him at 33/1 for the RSA Chase. On the face of it his win at Bangor wasn’t necessarily impressive but he did it well over a trip slightly short of his ideal and he was very game in victory, beating a horse who has come out and won since against the useful yardstick L’Antartique. The slightly longer trip on a far stiffer track should suit Mr Pointment well; his jumping is also very good which often proves decisive in novice chases around Cheltenham. In my opinion he has the scope to go on to make a useful 3m chaser and I hope he should prove to be better than his decent half brother, Ground Ball. Mr Pointment holds an alternative engagement at Market Rasen on Saturday also and I feel he should be backed wherever he turns up – I would love to see him taking on those Cheltenham fences though.
For anyone looking for pointers for the Welsh National, the 3m1f handicap chase at Cheltenham on Friday could prove to be useful as a lot of the entered runners are also engaged in Chepstow’s December 27th marathon. Horses entered in Friday’s race who occupy the business end of the market for the Welsh National include Juveigneur, Simon, Ardaghey, Gallant Approach and Innox, amongst others.
The early hours of Sunday morning see the Hong Kong International Racing Festival take place at Sha Tin racecourse at which a host of Europe’s finest flat racehorses are engaged. Western hopes centre on Ouija Board in the Hong Kong Vase with the mare current favourite for the race with British bookmakers for what is likely to be her swansong before retiring to stud. An admirable mare though she is, Ouija Board has a stiff enough task against the colts and I fancy Scorpion to run a big race at around five times the price of the mare.
Europe also currently provide the favourite for the feature race the Hong Kong Cup in the shape of Pride who has also been admirably consistent this season. I think that Jim Bolger’s mare Alexander Goldrun is more of a betting proposition though at far larger odds, this game mare won the race back in 2004 and the race should be run to suit her well.
In the Sprint race the Australian horse Takeover Target should be very hard to beat in what will be his ideal conditions.
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